TRACKING
TYPHOONS
by
Antonio C. Antonio
July
16, 2014
Technological
advances in GIS (Geographic Information Systems) and mapping have eradicated
guesswork and made tracking typhoons very easy.
With this, all we need to do is tune in to our favourite newscast and
their weather segment will most likely show photos or graphics on the track of
typhoons. Social media, like Facebook,
is also a good source as netizens are quick to post and repost typhoon-related information
and images of the track of typhoons.
More
often than not, however, we also experience power interruptions and lengthy
brownouts as the storm approaches and for the duration of the typhoon. So what happens now that our television sets
and computers are incapable of providing updates on the location of the
typhoon? Our best bet is the
traditionally glorified battery-operated AM transistor radio where we could
find a station that feeds news updates on the typhoon. I would agree that nothing beats being
prepared but what if, for some reason, we don’t have this radio in the house…
what now?
We
lost electricity in our area (Paranaque City) at around 4am and most people
could not sleep because of the persistent howling of Typhoon Glenda’s strong wind
(estimated between 150 to 180 kph) and the eerie sound of projectiles flying
all over the place. While Glenda was
battering Metro Manila early this morning to about noon today, I was cracking
my brain devising a way to track her whereabouts. Tracking her position was a
daunting task in the early morning darkness but it became easier by
sunrise. Obviously distraught, my entire
family kept asking where Glenda was and, to calm them down somewhat, I had to
use my Boy Scout instincts to adapt to the situation and find a novel way to
provide them the information they wanted.
It gave them some degree of comfort knowing that someone in the house
knew what was going on out there and could assure them how much longer they had
to endure with this worrisome situation.
Given the precariousness of our situation, I had to show them a brave
and self-assured front… although I sincerely was nervous and scared too. In the effort, I discovered a way to
estimate the position of Glenda’s eye with the crude materials available. So here’s what happened…
MATERIALS
USED: (a) A map of the Philippines; (b) a field compass; and, (c) a pencil…
and, more importantly, the trees in our neighbourhood. I used the pencil to plot the movement of
Typhoon Glenda (International Name: “Rammasun”) on the map and the compass to
verify the relative position of our house to the last known location of the eye
of the storm.
ESSENTIAL
INFORMATION NEEDED: (a) The projected
track of the typhoon; (b) the projected movement or speed of travel; (c)
Rotation (counter-clockwise in the case of Glenda); and (d) the radius of the
typhoon (estimated between 200 to 250 kilometers). All of these information should be gathered
from news reports and updates prior to the shutdown of electricity so we can
make intelligent assumptions in the period when we could no longer be aided by
media.
METHODOLOGY
AND PROCEDURE: From the time we lost
power at around 4am, the last known location of Typhoon Glenda was the Bicol
Region. There was nothing much I could
do to determine wind direction in the next 2 hours since it was too dark to see
the movement of the trees in our neighbourhood.
I should mention that wind direction plays a large part in determining
the position of the eye of the storm. At
daybreak, visibility improved and I could tell that the wind direction was 270
degrees (West). Using known data
(projected track, radius, directional rotation, wind strength and radius), I
estimated the eye to be somewhere in Albay.
By 7am, wind direction changed to 285 degrees (West-North West)…
estimating the eye to be in Camarines Sur. By 8am, wind direction changed to
305 degrees (North-West)… and with the winds picking up speed (meaning: the
typhoon was coming closer to where we were), the eye was estimated to be in
Quezon. By 9am, with the wind picking up more speed, wind direction changed
again to 325 degrees (North-North West)… estimating Glenda’s eye to be in
Laguna. By 10am, wind velocity was at its strongest, wind direction changed
further to 355 degrees (North)… estimating the storm to be in Cavite. By 11am, wind direction was 5 degrees (North)
and with the wind weakening considerably, the eye of Glenda is estimated to
have crossed Manila Bay towards the Bataan Peninsula. The weather condition in Metro Manila started
to get better from this point.
Typhoon
Glenda has left but not without giving us a big scare. Right now, we still don’t know the extent of
the damage she caused to the Eastern Visayas, Bicol and Southern Tagalog,
Central Luzon Regions and the Metro Manila area. Damage to properties seems low… let’s just
pray that the death toll is equally low.
Looking
back at the exercise, it really was a good one.
It might even be a good lesson in human adaptation given specific
conditions. What began as a simple act of
providing my family a measure of confidence in the face of a bad girl (Glenda),
turned out to be another valuable lesson...
I also discovered another function which we could add to the long list
of benefits trees give us… they could also be used in tracking typhoons.
Just
my little thoughts…
(Please
visit, like and share Pro EARTH Crusaders and Landscape Ecology UPOU on
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