SEA LEVEL RISE
by Anton Antonio
August 22, 2015
Sea level is the horizontal plane or level corresponding to
the surface of the sea at mean level between high and low tide. On the other hand, sea level rise is the
result and effect of the greenhouse effect or global warming. Rise in sea level will have a great impact on
the long-term coastal morphology which will gradually cause a general shoreline
retreat and an increased flooding risk.
Sea level rise is serous and worrisome. Some areas in Metro Manila have traditionally
been flood probe because of clogged waterways and high tide. Factor-in sea level rise and we have a
perfect formula for disaster… the effect and impact of such is simply
unthinkable.
But is sea level rise a reality? Here is a researched material on sea level
rise:
“EARTH’S MOST FAMOUS CLIMATE SCIENTIST ISSUES BOMBSHELL SEA
LEVEL WARNING; by Eric Holthaus…
In what may prove to be a turning point for political action
on climate change, a breathtaking new study casts extreme doubt about the
near-term stability of global sea levels.
The study --- written by James Hansen, NASA’s former lead
climate scientist, and 16 co-authors, many of whom are considered among the top
in their fields --- concludes that glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica will
melt 10 times faster than previous consensus estimates, resulting in sea level
rise of at least 10 feet in as little as 50 years. The study, which has not yet been
peer-reviewed, brings new importance to a feedback loop in the ocean near
Antarctica that results in cooler freshwater from melting glaciers forcing
warmer, saltier water underneath the ice sheets, speeding up the melting rate. Hansen, who is known for being alarmist and
also right, acknowledges that his study implies change far beyond previous
consensus estimates. In a conference
call with reporters, he said he hoped the new findings would be “substantially
more persuasive than anything previously published.” I certainly find them to be.
To come to their findings, the authors used a mixture of
paleoclimate records, computer models, and observations of current rates of sea
level rise, but “the real world is moving somewhat faster than the model,” Hansen
says.
Hansen’s study does not attempt to predict the precise
timing of the feedback loop, only that it is “likely” to occur this
century. The implications are
mindboggling: In the study’s likely
scenario, New York City --- and every other coastal city on the planet --- may
only have a few more decades of habitability left. That dire prediction, in Hansen’s view,
requires “emergency cooperation among nations.”
We conclude that continued high emissions will make
multi-meter sea level rise practically unavoidable and likely to occur this
century. Social disruption and economic
consequences of such large sea level rise could be devastating. It is not difficult to imagine that conflicts
arising from forces migrations and economic collapse might make the planet
ungovernable, threatening the fabric of civilization.
The science of ice melt rates is advancing so fast,
scientists have generally been reluctant to put a number to what is essentially
an unpredictable, nonlinear response of ice sheets to a steadily warming
ocean. With Hansen’s new study, that
changes in a dramatic way. One of the
study’s co-authors is Eric Rignot, whose own study last year found that glacial
melt from West Antarctica now appears to be “unstoppable.” Chris Mooney, writing for Mother Jones,
called the study a “holy shit” moment for the climate.
One necessary note of caution: Hansen’s study comes via a
non-traditional publishing decision by its authors. The study will be published in Atmospheric
Chemistry and Physics, an open-access “discussion” journal, and will not have
formal peer review prior to its appearance online later this week. [Update,
July 23: The paper is now available.]
The complete discussion draft circulated to journalists was 66 pages
long, and included more than 300 references.
The peer review will take place in real time, with responses to the work
by other scientists also published online.
Hansen said this publishing timeline was necessary to make the work public
as soon as possible before global negotiators meet in Paris later this
year. Still, the lack of traditional
peer review and the fact that this study’s results go far beyond what’s been
previously published will likely bring increased scrutiny. On Twitter, Ruth Mottram, a climate scientist
whose work focuses on Greenland and the Arctic, was sceptical of such enormous
rates of near-term sea level rise, though she defended Hansen’s decision to
publish in a non-traditional way.
In 2013, Hansen left his post at NASA to become a climate
activist because , in his words, “as a government employee, you can’t testify
against government.” In a wide-ranging
December 2013 study, conducted to support Our Children’s Trust, a group
advancing legal challenges to tax greenhouse gas emissions policies on behalf of
minors, Hansen called for a “human tipping point” --- essentially, a social
revolution --- as one of the most effective ways of combating climate change,
though he still favors a bilateral carbon tax agreed upon by the United States
and China as the best near-term climate policy.
In the new study, Hansen writes, “there is no morally defensible excuse
to delay phase-out of fossil fuel emissions as rapidly as possible.”
Asked whether Hansen has plans to personally present the new
research to world leaders, he said: “Yes, but I can’t talk about that
today.” “What’s still uncertain is
whether, like with so many previous dire warnings, world leaders will be
willing to listen.” --- Slate.com
The biggest uncertainty of pro-environment advocates and
activists is whether or not leaders and stakeholders are willing to listen. Sadly, they get bored by things they find
hard to understand… like sea level rise.
Thoughts to
promote positive action…
(Please
visit, like and share Pro EARTH Crusaders on Facebook or follow me at http://antonantonio.blogspot.com/
and http://twitter.com/EarthCrusader.)
REFERENCE:
Slate.com, (2015). “Sea Level Study: James Hansen Issues
Dire Climate Warning”. Retrieved on August 22, 2015 from http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/20/sea_level_study_james_hansen_issues_dire_climate_warning.html?wpsrc=sh_all_dt_tw_top
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