PEAK OIL
by Antonio C. Antonio
October 11, 2014
There are those who still believe that fossil fuel is here
to stay… forever! On the other hand,
there are those who say that sooner or later it will be gone. With this, two terms have become popular ---
“oil depletion” and “peak oil” --- which are terms that are interchangeably but
confusedly used. “Oil depletion” is
quite easy to understand… but what is “peak oil”?
Peak oil is a theory popularized by M. King Hubbert. The peak oil theory was postulated out of
statistical modelling approaches. This theory
states that at some point in time the maximum rate of extraction of petroleum
will be reached, if it has not been reached already, after which the rate of
production is expected to enter terminal decline. Peak oil, therefore, is the highest point of
production to be followed by a steady decline in the volume of fossil fuel that
can possibly be extracted from all the oil fields at present.
Post peak oil scenarios or the oil depletion stage are quite
discouraging. The Law of Demand and
Supply dictates that as supply goes down demand will increase together with prices…
and this increase in prices will be progressive and directly proportional to
the dwindling fossil fuel production.
The highly industrialized countries that are most dependent on fossil
fuel as their main energy source, will be most affected by oil depletion. Traditional farming nations, however, will
experience a greater demand for their produce and (most likely) better prices
as well.
There are several post peak oil scenarios which vary greatly
on the exact effect it will have on both oil-producing and oil-dependent
countries, rich and poor nations, and industrialized and agricultural
economies. Perhaps until the effects of
oil depletion are actually felt, we really would not understand and realize
what this term means; what really is peak oil.
Just my little thoughts…
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