EL NIÑO
By Anton Antonio
September 3, 2015
PAGASA (Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration) warns of strong El Niño this year. But what exactly is El Niño?
“El Niño is defined by prolonged warming in the Pacific
Ocean sea surface temperatures when compared with the average value. The U.S. NOAA definition is a 3-month average
warming of at least 0.5 degrees Centigrade in a specific area of the
east-central tropical Pacific Ocean, other organizations define the term
slightly differently. Typically, this
anomaly happens at irregular intervals of two to seven years, and lasts nine
months to two years. The average period length
is five years. When this warming occurs
for seven to nine months, it is classified as El Niño “conditions”, when its
duration is longer, it is classified as an El Niño “episode”. The first signs of an El Niño are a weakening
of the Walker circulation or trade winds and strengthening of the Hadley
circulation and may include: (1) Rise in surface pressure over the Indian
Ocean, Indonesia, and Australia; (2) Fall in air pressure over Tahiti and the
rest of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean; (3) Trade winds in the south
Pacific weaken or head east; and, (4) Warm air rises near Peru, causing rain in
the northern Peruvian deserts. El Niño
is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (commonly called ENSO)
and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central
and east-central equatorial Pacific (between approximately the International
Date Line and 120 degrees W), including off the Pacific coast of South
America. El Niño Southern Oscillation
refers to the cycle of warm and cold temperatures, as measured by sea surface
temperature, SST, of the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean. El Niño is accompanied by high air pressure
in the western Pacific and low air pressure in the eastern Pacific. The cool phase of ENSO is called “La Niña”
with SST in the eastern Pacific below average and air pressure high in the
eastern and low in the western Pacific.
The ENSO cycle, both El Niño and La Niña, causes global changes of both
temperatures and rainfall.” (Wikipedia)
To get all of us updated on the El Niño phenomenon, here are
two researched news items from local and foreign news agencies:
“WARMER TEMPERATURES, STRONG CYCLONES THIS “BER” MONTHS –
PAGASA
By Helen Flores, The Philippine Star
September 1, 2015
MANILA – The state weather bureau yesterday warned the
public to brace for warmer temperatures and stronger tropical cyclones during
the “ber” months due to the prevailing El Niño phenomenon. Based on the latest climate forecast of the
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
(PAGASA) “slightly warmer than average” temperature is expected in most parts
of the country from September until February 2016, except for the mountainous
areas in Luzon which will have “slightly cooler than average” temperature. “We could still experience the cold season
but we are expecting that (warmer temperatures), which is typical for an El
Niño,” Anthony Lucero, officer-in-charge of PAGASA’s climate monitoring and
prediction section, told The STAR. For
this month, the forecast ranges of temperature will be as follows: mountainous
Luzon (16-22 degrees Celsius); lowland Luzon (22-33 degrees Celsius); lowland
Visayas (24-33 degrees Celsius); lowland Mindanao (22-32 degrees Celsius); and
mountainous Mindanao (18-29 degrees Celsius).
PAGASA expects the shifting of wind from the warm and moisture-laden
southwesterly to the cold northeasterly by October. For January, normally the peak of the
northeast monsoon, slightly warmer weather is predicted in lowland Luzon,
lowland Visayas and lowland Mindanao, Lucero said. The weather bureau also expects a significant
reduction in rainfall in most parts of the country beginning this month until
February next year. Lucero noted that 65
provinces may suffer moderate to severe drought during the period, of which 35
are in Luzon, 16 in the Visayas and 14 in Mindanao. “We expect the full impact (of El Niño) to
happen in the last quarter of the year until next year. Cry spell and drought will affect most
provinces of the Philippines,” he said.
Lucero warned that there is also a big possibility of stronger cyclones
during the last quarter of the year due to the El Niño. He said five to eight tropical cyclones may
develop or enter the Philippine area of responsibility until February
2016. Scientists of the US National
Oceanic and atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center predicted
that the El Niño weather phenomenon could be “among the strongest El Niños in
the historical record dating back to 1950.”
El Niño can cause unusually heavy rains in some parts of the world and
drought elsewhere. It began in March and
is seen to last until May next year.” --- The Philippine Star
“EL NIÑO COULD BE STRONGEST IN MODERN HISTORY – US
SCIENTISTS
August 14, 2015
MIAMI – The El Niño weather phenomenon that began this year
could be among the strongest in 65 years, US government scientists said
Thursday. El Niño comes with a warming in sea temperatures in the equatorial
Pacific, and can cause unusually heavy rains in some parts of the world and
drought elsewhere. This year’s El Niño
began in March and is forecast to last about a year. Authorities in Australia have already
predicted it would be “strong” and “substantial.” That trend is still expected to continue,
said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, on a conference call with reporters
to discuss the US agency’s latest forecast, released Thursday. “What is new this month is we are predicting
that this El Niño could be among the strongest El Niños in the history record
back to 1950,” said Halpert. The reason
for the forecast is the finding that three months of average sea surface
temperatures in a key part of the equatorial Pacific “could potentially reach
or even exceed two degrees Celsius above normal, which is 3.6 degrees
Fahrenheit above normal, a value that we have only recorded three times in the
last 65 years,: he said. Such
temperatures were previously been in the 1972-71 season, 1982-83 season and
1997-98. The southern United States from
Florida to central California may expect higher than normal levels of
precipitation, as can the US East coast as far north as New England, Harper
said. The northern Rockies, great Lakes,
Hawaii and western Alaska may be dryer and warmer than normal, he added. Even though forecast of rain will be welcome
in drought-ravaged California, Halpert said it would not be enough to refill
the state’s reservoirs. “One season of
above average rain and snow is very unlikely to erase four years of drought,”
he said. The last El Niño, five years
ago, had a major impact: it triggered monsoons in Southeast Asia, droughts in
southern Australia, the Philippines and Ecuador, blizzards in the United
States, heatwaves in Brazil and killer floods in Mexico.” --- Agence France
Presse / Rappler
The El Niño phenomenon happening in the last quarter of this
year and extend up to the first quarter of next year is a real worrisome
problem (if it comes to pass). The most
likely impact will be on (a) potable water availability, (b) health issues
because of the extreme hot weather conditions, and (c) agricultural
productivity and consequently on food security… although there will be other
peripheral potential problems. We, as a
people, together with government should (this early) start preparing for this
year’s El Niño.
Thoughts to
promote positive action…
(Please
visit, like and share Pro EARTH Crusaders on Facebook or follow me at http://antonantonio.blogspot.com/
and http://twitter.com/EarthCrusader/)
REFERENCES:
Wikipedia.org. “El Niño”.
Retrieved on September 3, 2015 from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o
www.abs-cbnnews.com.
“Warmer Temperatures, Stronger Cyclones this “Ber” Months – PAGASA”. Retrieved on September 3, 2015 from http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/regions/09/01/15/warmer-temperatures-stronger-cyclones-ber-months-pagasa
www.gmanetwork.com.
“El Niño could be Strongest in Modern History – US Scientists”. Retrieved on
September 3, 2015 from http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/532906/scitech/science/el-nino-could-be-strongest-in-modern-history-us-scientists
www.rappler.com. “El
Niño Strongest in Modern History”.
Retrieved on September 3, 2015 from http://www.rappler.com/science-nature/environment/102542-el-nino-strongest-modern-history?utm_content=bufferea2e6&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer
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