GLOBAL WARMING PAUSE?
By Anton Antonio
September 26, 2015
Fossil fuel-based industry is a “big money” sector. While environmental scientists blame this
industry as the primary contributor to carbon emissions that cause global
warming, the same industry evangelize that climate change is a myth. Having embarked on a losing battle on the
“climate change myth” game, they are now playing a new game of a different
nature… that there is a “pause” in global warming. Here is an interesting researched material which
you may want to read…
“GLOBAL WARMING “PAUSE” THEORY IS DEAD BUT STILL TWITCHING…
PARIS, France --- A study released Thursday, September 17,
is the second this year seeking to debunk a 1998-2013 “pause” in global
warming, but other climate scientists insist the slowdown was real, even if not
a game-changer. When evidence of the
apparent hiatus first emerged, it was seized upon by sceptics as evidence that
climate change was driven more by natural cycles that humans pumping carbon
dioxide into the atmosphere. “Our
results clearly show that… there never was a hiatus, a pause or a slowdown,”
Noah Diffenbaugh, the study’s main architect and a professor at Stanford
University, said in a statement. The
thermal time-out, his team found, resulted from “faulty statistical
methods”. In June, experts from the US
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) came to the same
conclusion, chalking up the alleged slowdown to a discrepancy in measurements
involving ocean buoys used to log temperatures.
Their results were published in the peer-reviewed journal Science. Beyond a strident public debate fuelled as
much by ideology and facts, the “pause” issue has serious real-world
implications. Scientifically, a
discrepancy between climate projections and observations could suggest that
science has overstated Earth’s sensitivity to the radiative force of the
Sun. Politically, it could weaken the
sense of urgency underlying troubled UN negotiations, tasked with crafting a
global pact in December to beat back climate change. At first, scientists sounding an alarm about
the threat of greenhouse gases were stumped by the date, unable to explain the
drop-off in the pace of warming. Even
the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - whose most recent
1,000-plus page report is the scientific benchmark for the UN talks - made note
of “the hiatus”. Searching for
explanations, the IPCC speculated on the possible causes: minor volcano
eruptions throwing radiation-blocking dust in the atmosphere, a decrease in
solar activity, aerosols, regional weather patterns in the Pacific and Atlantic
Oceans. To the general relief of the
climate science community, the Stanford findings – a detailed review of
statistical methodology – would appear to be the final word on the
subject. Previous calculations were
flawed, they said, because they assumed there was a random distribution in tens
of thousands of temperature data points.
But once they were adjusted to take into account the relationship
between the data points, the hiatus disappeared. “This study puts the last nail in the coffin
of the “pause” idea circulated by the propagators or climate confusion,” IPCC
Vice President Jean-Pascal van Ypersele told Agence France-Presse. Perhaps – but if so, the corpse of the
climate hiatus is still twitching in its grave.
In a 20-page report earlier this week called “Big changes underway in
the climate system?”. Britain’s weather agency confirmed the existence of the
notorious “pause” – if only to say that it was probably over. The historical record, the Met Office said,
shows periods when temperatures rise rapidly and “periods with little warming
or even cooling… the most recent period starting around 2000.” The likelihood that 2015 and 2016 will
deliver record average temperatures suggests that this interlude is likely
over, the report said. But despite
having referenced the June NOAA study debunking the “hiatus”. The MET Office
report did not call it into question.
Doug Smith, the Met Officer’s predictability research manager, told
Agence France-Presse that data for the world’s average surface temperature
showed “a clear reduction recently”. He
added: “We prefer to call it a slowdown rather than a pause.” Rowan Sutton, Director of Research at
Britain’s National Centre for Atmospheric Science, went even further. “We can’t say that the “pause” in the use of
global average surface temperature has ended because many factors affect
short-term trends,” he said. At the same
time, all these scientists agree that the slowdown debate is a footnote to the
larger story of climate change, which threatens to make Earth inhospitable for
humans well before the end of the century.
“Climate change never stopped and the Earth had continued to accumulate
energy,” Sutton said by email. --- Marlowe Hood, Agence France-Presse /
Rappler.com
Now that the “global warming pause” theory has been
debunked, what’s next? The fossil
fuel-based industry will, most certainly, think for a different strategy since
this did not work: The Global Warming Pause.
Thoughts to
promote positive action…
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REFERENCE:
Rappler.com, (2015). “Global Warming ‘Pause’ Theory is Dead
but Still Twitching”. Retrieved on
September 26, 2015 from http://www.rappler.com/science-nature/environment/106268-global-warming-pause-theory-statistics?utm_content=buffer8a4e5&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer