Climate Change

CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate change is a significant and lasting change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods ranging from decades to millions of years. It may be a change in average weather conditions, or in the distribution of weather around the average conditions (i.e., more or fewer extreme weather events).  Climate change is caused by factors such as biotic processes, variations in solar radiation received by Earth, plate techtonics, and volcanic eruptions.  Certain human activities have also been identified as significant causes of recent climate change, often referred to as “global warming”.

Scientists actively work to understand past and future climate by using observations and theoretical models.  A climate record — extending deep into the Earth's past — has been assembled, and continues to be built up, based on geological evidence from boreholes temperature profiles, cores removed from deep accumulations of ice, floral and faunal records, glacial and periglacial processes, stable-isotope and other analyses of sediment layers, and records of past sea levels. More recent data are provided by the instrumental record.  General circulation models, based on the physical sciences, are often used in theoretical approaches to match past climate data, make future projections, and link causes and effects in climate change.

TERMINOLOGY:

The most general definition of “climate change” is a change in the statistical properties of the climate system when considered over long periods of time, regardless of cause.  Accordingly, fluctuations over periods shorter than a few decades, such as El Niño, do not represent climate change.

The term sometimes is used to refer specifically to climate change caused by human activity, as opposed to changes in climate that may have resulted as part of Earth's natural processes.  In this sense, especially in the context of environmental policy, the term “climate change” has become synonymous with anthropogenic global warming.  Within scientific journals, “global warming” refers to surface temperature increases while “climate change” includes global warming and everything else that increasing greenhouse gas levels will affect.

CAUSES:

On the broadest scale, the rate at which energy is received from the sun and the rate at which it is lost to space determine the equilibrium temperature and climate of Earth.  This energy is distributed around the globe by winds, ocean currents, and other mechanisms to affect the climates of different regions.

Factors that can shape climate are called climate forcings or "forcing mechanisms".  These include processes such as variations in solar radiation, variations in the Earth's orbit, mountain-building and continental drift and changes in greenhouse gas concentrations.  There are a variety of climate change feedbacks that can either amplify or diminish the initial forcing.  Some parts of the climate system, such as the oceans and ice caps, respond slowly in reaction to climate forcings, while others respond more quickly.

Forcing mechanisms can be either "internal" or "external". Internal forcing mechanisms are natural processes within the climate system itself (e.g., the thermohaline circulation).  External forcing mechanisms can be either natural (e.g., changes in solar output) or anthropogenic (e.g., increased emissions of greenhouse gases).

Whether the initial forcing mechanism is internal or external, the response of the climate system might be fast (e.g., a sudden cooling due to airborne volcanic ash reflecting sunlight), slow (e.g. thermal expansion of warming ocean water), or a combination (e.g., sudden loss of albedo in the arctic ocean as sea ice melts, followed by more gradual thermal expansion of the water).  Therefore, the climate system can respond abruptly, but the full response to forcing mechanisms might not be fully developed for centuries or even longer.

A study in 2001 found that stratospheric circulation can have anomalous effects on the weather regimes.  In the same year researchers found a statistical correlation between weak polar vortex and outbreaks of severe cold in the Northern Hemisphere.  In more recent years scientists identified interactions with Arctic sea ice decline, reduced snow cover, evapotranspiration patterns, NAO anomalies or weather anomalies which are linked to the polar vortex and jet configuration.  However, because the specific observations are considered short-term observations (starting c. 13 years ago) there is considerable uncertainty in the conclusions.  Climatology observations require several decades to definitively distinguish natural variability from climate trends.

The general assumption is that reduced snow cover and sea ice reflect less sunlight and therefore evaporation and transpiration increases, which in turn alters the pressure and temperature gradient of the polar vortex, causing it to weaken or collapse. This becomes apparent when the jet stream amplitude increases (meanders) over the northern hemisphere, causing Rossby waves to propagate farther to the south or north, which in turn transports warmer air to the north pole and polar air into lower latitudes.  The jet stream amplitude increases with a weaker polar vortex, hence increases the chance for weather systems to become blocked.  A recent blocking event emerged when a high-pressure over Greenland steered Hurricane Sandy into the northern Mid-Atlantic states in the US.  (Wikipedia)

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