TYPHOON
YOLANDA
by
Antonio C. Antonio
November
18, 2013
Author’s
Note: The following article became the
subject of an on-line discussion on Typhoon Haiyan (Typhoon Yolanda).
The
recent events, which affected some 11 million Filipinos (a disturbing percentage
of about 10% of our entire population) is truly very alarming. It really
will be worth our time discussing and exchanging views on this.
What can
we really do to prevent or avoid disasters like Yolanda from happening
again? The question may seem overwhelming, isn’t it? Weather systems, in Filipino religious
culture, are “acts of God” and man cannot do anything to prevent them…
especially Yolanda, which has been considered to be the strongest typhoon to
ever make landfall. Yolanda is a 1st World problem which
unfortunately happened to a 3rd World country. Our
government (both national and local), obviously ill-prepared and ill-equipped
to cope with such a disaster, was initially overwhelmed, shocked and
paralyzed. The United States, with all its wealth and power, also failed
to stop Typhoon Katrina which registered 230 KPH winds… Yolanda was over 250
KPH. If governments (our own and other countries) cannot stop typhoons, what
can ordinary people like us do to stop natural calamities? Nothing.
Disaster
prevention is the business of the Gods… a task beyond the capabilities of mere
mortals like us. But a lot could be done in terms of disaster
preparedness and risk reduction. Mitigation might no longer be the prime
strategy since Global Warming and Climate Change are already upon us. Our
government seems to have charted a good roadmap in dealing with disasters… the
three Rs --- (a) rescue, (b) relief, and (c) rehabilitation. Disasters
(floods, earthquake, [now] storm surge, etc.) are here to stay and all we can
do is to perhaps adapt to them.
Adaptation
should be the centerpiece of the rehabilitation aspect of the roadmap in
disaster scenarios. In the case of the Eastern Visayan islands which were
the hellpath of Yolanda, it would be wise to make a geohazard assessment of the
area. In this regard, please allow me to focus on Tacloban, Leyte since
it the city which is often mentioned in most news coverage and has been the
benchmark in assessing Yolanda’s destructive power.
Please see
this link --- http://leyte-pdrrmc.org/maps.php --- for the flood hazard map of
Tacloban City, Leyte. (My apologies… I could not find a “storm surge” map
and a flood map was the best I could come up with.) Although a topographic map should be the best
tool to determine the low-lying areas in Tacloban City, a flood map could also
serve our purpose. The flood map clearly
indicates that the high risk areas in Tacloban City are located on the
south-southeastern part of the city bordering the mighty Pacific Ocean.
With Samar Island on the far northeastern part of Tacloban City, it is plain to
see how a storm surge coming from the east became possible. Judging from
the numerous photos and television footages of the city taken after Yolanda,
this part of Tacloban City is relatively flat. Unfortunately, this area
of the city is where majority of its population is located.
With this
in the background, I could recommend the following methodology as an adaption
measure:
1. The Department of Environment and
Natural Resources (DENR) shall identify the low-lying and high risk areas in
Tacloban City.
2. The City Council shall declare
(through ordinances) these low-lying and high risk areas (especially those
where flooding occurred during Yolanda) as “no build zones”.
3. The DENR shall identify
relocation sites for those whose properties are included in the “no build
zone.” The relocation sites should be within or as close to Tacloban
City… preferably public land that are alienable and disposable (A &
D). The Register of Deeds shall help in identifying the legal landowners
in the “no build zone.” This will exclude informal settlers… another
housing program could be designed for them… perhaps a low-cost communal-type
housing in the same relocation site.
4. Landowners in the “no build zone”
shall be offered the same land area in the relocation site. This will be
some kind of “land swapping” arrangement with no cash involved.
5. The United Architects of the
Philippines could be involved in the planning of these new communities in the
relocation areas… complete with public markets, parks, recreational facilities
and other necessary facilities.
6. The business sector should also
be encouraged to set-up business ventures next or near these relocation sites
to provide gainful employment for these new communities.
The
biggest problem in plans and programs like this is where to get the financial
resources to implement them. With the kind of support and aid being
pledged and actually given by the international community (which could be in the
billions of dollars) plus throw-in PDAF, DAP and the Malampaya funds (which
were just being stolen before anyway), funding may perhaps not be a
problem. A more serious concern is the priorities and attitude of some of
our government officials (who, even at times of disaster, are often engaged in
campaigning rather than committing themselves to simple tasks like repacking
relief goods.)
It is
said that there is an opportunity in every calamity. A project/program
proposal along this line will now allow us the opportunity to build better and
environmentally sound communities in Tacloban City.
But how
will this work?... when we are just
confined to our computers and on-line discussions? Dr. Consuelo De Luna-Habito
of UPOU, made us aware (in the on-line course “Ecosystem Structure and
Dynamics”) that we have different circles of influence:
- Our
immediate family;
- Our
relatives and close friends;
- Our
classmates, co-workers and business associates; and,
- Our
peripheral acquaintances.
And these
circles of influence have their own circles of influence too. Several
ripples in a still pond could eventually agitate the entire pond. If we
are “noisy” enough about what we want to see happen,
somehow-sometime-somewhere, this will eventually get to someone who could
actually make it happen.
No one
has a monopoly of bright ideas. Individually, our ideas may even be
considered mundane and insignificant. But collectively, we could come up
with a thesis and an anti-thesis then agree on a synthesis to adapt to this
problem. My dear friends, your opinions are most needed too…
Just my
little thoughts…
Reference:
COMMENTS
/ REACTIONS:
Vladymir Rivera (November 18,
2013): “Thanks, Anton, for sharing your
thoughts. The first thing I felt
compelled to react to was what you wrote as "disaster prevention is the
business of the Gods". You must
have been focusing on Tacloban so much that you've missed how the people in
other areas, for example in Tulang Diyot island off Cebu, managed to prevent
disaster (i.e. zero casualty) by being prepared and organised. They left the island before Super Typhoon
Yolanda struck. Sure, their houses were flattened too, but having no casualty
where thousands died in other areas is of paramount accomplishment here. Tacloban is a different story. The disastrous outcome is compounded by its
topography and population and structural density, on top of the fact that
Yolanda's strength was unprecedented in recent history. It's easy to recommend what to do. As they say, everyone becomes an expert in a
post-disaster situation. I'm sure
there's an overflow of ideas and proposals right now about what should have
been done, what needs to be done, how, why.
However, I feel that a more fundamental task is to offer a good and
grounded assessment of what happened, how it happened, why it happened that way
in that area and differently in another area, to contribute in enriching a
fuller understanding of the (impacts of this) disaster. At face value, I find it hard to square up
the policy actions and recommendations that you've identified with the
background that you've provided. First
of, why might mitigation "no longer be the prime strategy", or that
adaptation "should be the centerpiece of rehabilitation" in disaster
scenarios? Wasn't this one of the main
lessons of Yolanda's aftermath? That one
cannot chose how to be prepared; instead you have to be prepared at all levels,
in all aspects. At the same time, it can
even be argued that perhaps relocation, especially in the context of storm
surges, would be more meaningful than adaptation as a centerpiece of
rehabilitation. I don't know. What I do know is that the scale and depth of
Yolanda's aftermath very much reflects the state of environmental
degradation and ecological destruction, and how disproportionate the benefits
and impacts of natural resource exploitation accrue to public good and safety. My two cents.”
Antonio
C. Antonio (November 18, 2013): “Hi, Vlad…
Your “two cents” and my “little thoughts” are exactly what this exercise
is about. Throwing our raw ideas into a
pool of ideas (no matter how diverse or complimentary) until we can all discern
what is ideal. Who knows… other people
might even come up with radically different ideas and, perhaps, even totally
disagree with both of us. This is
getting to be exciting, isn’t it? God bless you and stay well…”
Elizabeth Villazar (November 19,
2013): “Hello everybody, I agree that we
can’t avoid or prevent this kind of phenomenon (development of cyclone) but I
think we CAN at least control its frequency of developing and its intensity. As our diplomat Mr. Yeb Sano (Philippine UN
delegation) pointed out during the opening of UN Climate Summit in Warsaw,
global warming is the cause of typhoon Haiyan.
I was so touched with his speech and as an employee of an automotive
manufacturing company, I am more obliged to intensify our programs to prevent
or at least mitigate the effects of global warming. I am also teaching my children, relatives and
friends to practice environment-friendly activities that will lessen the
emission of green house gases (GHG) to the atmosphere. As these GHG accumulate in our atmosphere,
oceans such as the Pacific and Atlantic tend to warm. Warmer waters increase the rate of
evaporation which then leads to the formation of low pressure area (it was also
explained by Mang Tani – resident meteorologist of GMA7). This is the time a depression normally forms
which turns into typhoon/ cyclone. Kindly
add more about my initial understanding of the formation of typhoons. Kindly refer also to the links I provided for
your awareness as I have limited time to further my discussion on this. Nevertheless, we need to act now to address
the current environmental situation we are in.
No matter how small the action may be, it will always help in some way. If we act now, we could at least mitigate the
adverse effects in the future. We don't
have to be in a particular place and time to do our share in shaping the future
of our environment. http://science.time.com/2013/11/11/climate-change-didnt-cause-supertyphoon-haiyan-but-the-storm-is-still-a-reason-to-fight-warming/
Elizabeth Villezar (November 19,
2013): “Good day to all, In addition to
my previous post, being one of the Filipinos who in times of
difficulty tried to bring comfort to our fellowmen in whatever way we can,
relief participation is the immediate action we can do as of this moment for
the victims of typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan).
Although this act is reactive at least we can still reach out to them. As we've learned from our previous courses,
in addressing environmental issues, we must be proactive in dealing with those. Scientists may still be reluctant or slow to
detail the real causes of the calamities that we are experiencing nowadays but
at least we have ideas on how to act accordingly. With this little information, I hope that
someday we'll be able to make a difference in shaping our environment by
learning more and sharing what we've learned to those who are in need and
together we can do it.”
Antonio
C. Antonio (November 19, 2013): “Hi,
Beth… Your (two) posts are highly appreciated. Your ideas are very
positive and proactive. This is exactly what we need in times of
disaster. Your pro-environment stance, your desire to find ways “to make
a difference in shaping our environment” and your willingness to share your
knowledge is truly admirable. Thank you for sharing your ideas. God
bless you and stay well…”
Victor Virgo (November 19,
2013): “Thanks Sir Anton, I think we
cannot prevent natural phenomenon like typhoon since our nature has its own
cycle, and defence mechanism that happens continuously throughout the life of
earth. However, I believe that if we
care enough for our natural resources we can still reduce the risk or may
lessen the damage to properties and casualties that can be brought by these
natural calamities. For example, if
there is still large areas of forest cover maybe it can block and diminish the
speed wind of typhoon Yolanda. But then
again, if we look at what happened few days before the typhoon entered the PAR
the national government warned the people about the strength and the distance
of the typhoon and I think the best solution is to leave the area but it is
impossible to transport all the people of Samar in a safer island. Since Samar
is facing the Pacific Ocean, we have to expect that it is prone to strong
typhoon and maybe to more devastating calamities like tsunami. If that the case, I think we have to focus in
the design and structure of buildings and houses, maybe a full cemented roofing
and or have a basement for hurricane protection. In rebuilding the Samar Island, designers and
contractors, have to study building failures and information to prevent similar
catastrophes because many of the lessons learned from failures have led to
establishment of safety rules in building codes.”
Antonio
C. Antonio (November 19, 2013): “Hi,
Vic… I’m glad you mentioned “tsunami.” News has it that people have
been sufficiently warned days before Yolanda made landfall. But what people
were made aware of was the possibility of a “storm surge” which is an
unfamiliar term… something they have never experienced before or even heard or
know about. Do you think it would have been more effective if “tsunami”
was used?... a term people are more familiar with? You and I know that
“tsunami” would be a wrong term but, considering the situation, a little
disinformation could (perhaps) been more effective. I agree that the some
degree of revisions in our building codes should be done to cope with 300 KPH
winds. Thanks and stay well…”
Victor Virgo (November 21,
2013): “Thanks! It is better to inform
the people about the difference of tsunami and storm surge. Our country I think is near to the Pacific
ring of fire therefore, there is a possibility of tsunami since tsunami is a
large destructive ocean wave caused by an underwater earthquake. However, the two phenomena are devastating so
I think we need to be always prepared. We
need to be vigilant in protecting our environment especially in promoting the
importance of upland and aquatic ecosystem.”
Elizabeth Villezar (November 21,
2013): “Hello po, I just want to clarify
something, Sir Vic. The Philippine is not just near but actually within the
Pacific Ring of Fire. Kindly refer to the
attached image I provided herein. Regards,
Source: www.ngdc.noaa.gov”
Alyssa Erika Louis Agaban
(November 21, 2013): “I believe the occurrence
of disasters like this is beyond our control.
And sadly their magnitude will get stronger. However, what we can do is start
preparing. DISASTER PREPAREDNESS will
soon be the next big thing in the coming years.
Since nature made us understand her power, people will start taking DISASTER
PREPAREDNESS seriously. We need to start planning how to create a
disaster-resilient Philippines. According
to the head of the Philippine delegation Lucille Sering said that “climate
change is not something that we should be flirting with. For us and for other poorer countries, this
is real. People
should now be taught how to PREPARE and how TO ADAPT. But they have to be educated. EDUCATION is a
key to our survival.”
Alyssa Erika Louis Agaban
(November 21, 2013): “Sharing with you
this VALUABLE study made by WWF and BPI Foundation for climate change
vulnerabilities on several cities** in the
country, interestingly including Tacloban, just two months before Yolanda
struck the city. The study predicted a
super typhoon coming to Tacloban 2021, sadly this came 8 years earlier than
expected. Phases covered the cities of
Baguio, Cagayan de Oro, Cebu, Davao, Dagupan, Iloilo, Laoag and Zamboanga from
2011 to 2012. The cities of Angeles, Batangas, Naga and Tacloban were assessed
for 2013. Comprehensive data is publicly
made available by WWF here http://wwf.org.ph/wwf3/climate/publications. We
have yet to wait for the completion of the 2013 assessment - which includes
Tacloban.”
Antonio
C. Antonio (November 21, 2013): “Hi,
Chai... Thank you for the valuable info that you shared with us. It is
really tough to predict weather systems. I agree that nothing beats
PREPAREDNESS. And education could play a critical role in increasing the
level of knowledge and awareness amongst us.
Hoping that the assessment be completed soonest so we can all learn from
the experts. Again, thanks and stay well...”
Liza Marie Cabungcal (November
21, 2013): “Thanks, Anton, for your
courage to initiate this forum. Independent
of the culture of the country, the storm surge is a natural event beyond our
control. But yes, we are and could be in
control of our response before, during and after. What happened before Yolanda was that the
response in the form of disaster preparedness, using our material/logistical/
technological resources did not match the intensity and extent of the natural
event. It was very enlightening to know
that the natural event was foreseen to happen in 2021. However, it was beyond anybody's imagination
what it really was. I think that the
three sectors - government, private and people's organization - have to meet in
view of what had happened. I don't know
if we are a bit allergic to mention the NGOs in this forum because of the recent
political event. Based on what we read
and have seen in the news and on my personal experience, there are several NGOs
which provided laudable prompt response after the disaster to make up for the
"prudence" of the national government in determining what to do to
help the victims. I think there is a
principle of subsidiarity that must be followed during this time of
crisis. While it is true that the bigger
entity (national government) should not overpower the smaller entity (LGU) in
areas within their competence, in this case of Yolanda, the bigger entity
should already come into the picture to supply what is needed since the smaller
entity was seriously incapacitated. What could we do? Let us continue racking our brains for
possible solutions. I agree with Anton's
proposal to establish 'no-build zones' but, as always, the stakeholders have to
be consulted considering the sentimental value of the place. The other option is to construct buildings
which could withstand a 300+ kph wind...
I wonder how much that building will cost. Anyway, we also learned in Landscape Ecology
that our approach has to be both multidisciplinary and transdisciplinary. There is a need for more interactions for
brighter ideas.”
Antonio
C. Antonio (November 21, 2013): “Hi, Liza...
To be perfectly honest, I had second thoughts about opening the discussion
forum… I'm aware of my limitations and
was also nervous and afraid of coming up with sloppy arguments too. I
agree that the squabbling between the three actors in governance (national
government, LGU and NGOs) did more damage than good to the rescue and relief
efforts. Just my little thoughts
again... do you think that it's time to create a national agency to
specifically manage disasters (especially their aftermath)? Not that the NDRRMC failed its mandate but,
perhaps, an agency with more authority and coordinating powers over other government
agencies in times of calamity. Just an
additional point to consider... Thanks and stay well...”
Eduviges Gibas (November 21, 2013):
“Hi Anton, I agree with your suggestions.
Sharing some more information… In
fact detailed geohazard (flooding and landslide) mapping with a scale map of
10:000 is an on-going project of the MGB-DENR including the assessment of
relocation sites since 2011. After
Yolanda, I also had this crazy idea stated in my officemates “probably why not
do also the storm surge (prediction) mapping on coastal areas”. Indeed, Vlad, Vic, Elizabeth, Anton and
Alyssa notes are all worthy words of encouragement, inspiration, valuable
information, knowledge and lesson to ponder and consider. Education is very much needed at all levels
when it comes to uncontrollable situations/conditions like super typhoons. Though much have been done and shared by
concerned people, units and offices regarding disaster risk reduction,
management, preparedness, etc. Still
human efforts are being tested by calamities/natural phenomena, just like the
7.2 magnitude earthquake that hit Regions 6 and 7 and Region 8 super
typhoon. Results are the best lessons of
how far the efforts and initiatives had been done so far. Sabi nga ng isang information material “sa panahon kung ang bagyo ay papasok sa
Pilipinas ang mga lugar sa baybayin ay pinag-iingat sa posibleng coastal
flooding at storm surge”......” ang storm surge ay ang malalaking alon na
umaabot ang taas hanggang 10 metro dahil sa bugso ng hangin dulot ng
bagyo”. I would in fact agree
with Anton, that probably it could have been said that a “tsunami-like” may
happen in the onslaught of Yolanda just to increase pressure on awareness... on
coastal community... for people to move out and prepare... the rest is part of
the history now... and recent information circulating in social and mass media
made mentioned that such similar events happened in 1897 and 1912 in parts
of Leyte and Samar. “Storm surge” –
according to some colleagues/friends is known as” daluyong”... I just
heard of it...”
Antonio
C. Antonio (November 21, 2013): “Hi,
Edu... I'm very pleased to know that the DENR-MGB has already initiated
geohazard mapping. It, perhaps, will not be a bad idea to thrown in
"storm surge" as another item in the study since efforts are already
being made on floods and landslides anyway. There is very limited awareness
on "storm surges" and after Yolanda, it's, perhaps, the right time to
conduct an information campaign on this (especially to coastal communities) The
DENR could make this happen. Thanks, Edu, for sharing your insights. Stay
well...”
Zaldy Lumaan (November 21,
2013): “Hello Sir Anton, Typhoons like Yolanda is natural phenomenon,
as what we have seen and heard in the television and read in the newspapers, it
was really a disaster. No one can avoid
this if it struck one place. Natural phenomenon cannot be avoided but effects
of disasters can be minimized. With or
without predictions as to where it will hit or have its landfall, the people
should always be prepared, then disasters can be minimized. We have enough laws and policies as guidance
on what to follow especially on land use.
If only no one live along coastlines, near river banks and flood prone
areas and other disaster prone areas, we will not be counting thousands of lost
lives in times of typhoon or storm surges.
The Philippines already know that several storms pass every year in its
territories but still people insist to live in above-mentioned areas. Reason always is that they will be dislocated
to their source of livelihood. What the
government can do is to educate these people and strictly impose the laws and
policies for this. It is better to be
proactive than reactive. Storms cannot
be stopped unless it is human made, is there a such thing? It is only in the movies. What we can do is pray to God that these
disastrous events like typhoon Yolanda will not happen again. Only God can stop it. Everybody will take action for the good of
all of us. The knowledge we can acquire
from our discussion can somehow help people understand the consequences if
people will insist on what they want. This
will be our task.”
Antonio
C. Antonio (November 21, 2013): “Hi,
Zaldy... Man-made storms is a brilliant idea... because if they are made by
man, they could most certainly be unmade (and, therefore, prevented) by man,
isn't it? But sadly, you and I know that
this happens only in movies. Hopefully,
in the future, man can be more technically advanced and have the ability to
prevent calamities. We all share your
concern over the loss of lives because of Yolanda. I agree that, we could do our part in
evangelizing on the ill effects of environmental degradation. Thanks and stay well...”
Clarence Faith Escote (November
22, 2013): “Thanks for sharing this
info. It seems that these vast areas
susceptible to floods are also crowded with both commercial and
residential houses. In other words, it
is like a "disaster-prone area" already in the first place. Oftentimes, we underestimate natural
calamities such as these. We tend to
neglect details (flood susceptibility map) such as these when everything is
fine. The devastating effect of this
natural phenomenon could have been prevented if we have responded proactively
and cautiously in all areas of defense, safety and governance. It's like a thief in the night, you won't
know when they'll come but you can proactively protect yourself, family and
properties by planning ahead and strategizing your defense in terms of
materials, design etc. I think that it
teaches us to be proactive and equip ourselves with knowledge and to turn it
into practical use. We must continue to
inform, promote, and initiate sustainable environment management. I feel for them not just because my
co-employees at our plant site in Leyte were affected but I personally
witnessed the aftermath Reming brought in my hometown. We were lax and did not really take the super typhoon
seriously because we usually encounter storms each year. However, those whose home located a
stone-throw away from the rivers and seas where the one who got devastated plus
those who lives near the danger zones of Mayon Volcano. Learning from that sad experience, our LGU
spear-headed by Gov. Salceda created the Climate Change Academy and institutionalized Albay
Public Safety and Emergency Management Office (APSEMO) to handle disasters. Prevention is always better than cure. We must think and act proactively. References:
http://www.unisdr.org/campaign/resilientcities/cities/view/2251
Jose Francisco Reyes (November
22, 2013): “Hi Sir Anton! I would like
to comment that Man-made storms are a possibility, however, the instance and
occurrence is not as immediate as it is seen in movies. Let's say that the due to the increase in the
temperature of the planet, or the warming up of the environment causes a
drastic increase in the formation of storms and typhoons. The warming up of the environment are caused
by the increasing use of fossil fuels such as oil and coal. Suffice to say, man indirectly caused the
strengthening of typhoons. I would like
to suggest the review of policies and regulations regarding land use and
management in typhoon prone areas. The
government, both national and local government units, should educate settlers
of prone areas regarding their status and role in the area.”
Liza Marie Cabungcal (November
25, 2013): “Hi Anton! I don't know yet
what to answer. I still have to educate
myself regarding the competencies of the existing national agencies. Just the same, this is a matter to be
explored. What a challenging task ahead
of us!”
Antonio
C. Antonio (November 25, 2013): “Hi,
Liza... It's a challenging task
indeed... challenging but not impossible. Anyway, I have some bit of good
news for you. Today, the President ordered the DENR to study and identify
"no build" zones along critical coastal communities and areas.
I'm very pleased that he even used the same term... "No Build
Zones". If we really want to get things done, we really have to be
"noisy" about what we want to see happen. Thank you and stay well...”
Antonio
C. Antonio (November 25, 2013): “Hi,
Chingco... I initially thought you were privy to top secret information of
man's capability to make typhoons. You got me all excited with your first
sentence. Anyway, I agree that typhoons and their strength and frequency
are caused by global warming... and that land use policies will have to be
reviewed. Thanks and stay well...”
Hazel Henrisha Chua (November 26,
2013): “I completely agree with this
point. After Yolanda hit, so many news
outlets then clarified what "storm surge" was. It was a little too
late, considering the people who heard the warnings before the storm didn't
really understand what it was. "Tsunami"
isn't the right term for it, but it's a term that a lot of people understand after
what happened in Indonesia. I think they
should've just mentioned tsunami every time they talked about the storm surge,
because they're basically the same in terms of occurrence. They differ in how they were originated, if my
understanding is correct. At the point
of calamity, what matters most is that people understand your warnings. Terminology is not that big a deal. All I can
say is this realization was a little too late.”
Hazel Henrisha Chua (November 26,
2013): “I think this was a valuable
study. But the thing about predictions
is that not all of them come true. As in
this case, not all are accurate either. When what is predicted does come true, people
dig through archives and insist that they were right. But when they're wrong, they keep mum and let
it pass. Unfortunately, if people
followed and took heed of all predictions and warnings published by agencies
all over the world, then we'd be overwhelmed with occurrences that might or
might not happen. That said, I do think
that studies like these should be heeded as a precaution. With the possibility of such calamities happening,
we should have been better prepared. But
for a country that's plagued with corruption and poverty, what could we have
done better?”
Hazel Henrisha Chua (November 26,
2013): “Thanks for posting the map. Can
I ask when this was prepared? And if so, why didn't officials in these
localities take heed of this?”
Anna Rossini
Parcero (November 26, 2013): “There
are 2 courses of action to take - the proactive and the reactive one. Being proactive means checking the
typhoon/disaster readiness of an area. A
zoning map exists in every municipality. Experts have long identified zones that must
be preserved for ecological reasons and zones that may be used for
agricultural, residential, commercial and other purposes. Is the zoning map of your community still
relevant? It makes sense to review and update these zoning maps. On the other hand, being reactive applies
after a disaster has taken place. Immediately
one feels moved to provide assistance to those affected. Alongside this altruism however abound
reactions to the effect of "should've been", "could've
been", "would've been". In
the case of Tacloban, we now see its dire vulnerability. Some can't help but comment that the local
government should've been more prepared. If the people had taken measures to fortify
their homes and infrastructures, these would not have been destroyed. Had they known that their constructions
materials were not strong enough to withstand super typhoons, they would have
used sturdier materials. Had sturdier
materials been available and affordable, they would have considered buying
those instead in their constructions. Like
any other natural disasters, the Yolanda experience is not a case of "gods
gone mad". We already saw it coming. PAGASA, with its technology, had announced the
extents of the incoming typhoon. The
super typhoon is not the root cause, but a manifestation of what many
communities fall short of. There are social, economic and political
deficiencies involved. As MENRM
students, we should embody what the second M stands for - Management. Management entails effectively bringing
together interrelated groups towards a greater goal. Yolanda could have easily come and gone
without leaving behind a wreckage, had there been a stronger set of hands
managing a community's resources.”
Antonio
C. Antonio (November 26, 2013): “Hi,
Anna... I could feel your frustration and I share them too. What happened to us with Yolanda is a bitter
lesson... the magnitude of which is really beyond us. As I've mentioned, Yolanda is a 1st World
problem landing on the lap of a 3rd World country. We could have been is
a more pathetic situation if the more progressive countries did not respond to
our immediate needs. But now that this has happened to us, I agree with
you that we should seriously look into what caused this bitter lesson. Your inputs on reviewing our zoning policies,
building/infrastructure standards, disaster preparedness, etc. are very good.
They should form part of an effort to increase the overall awareness
level on environmental matters... especially disaster risk reduction. For
our part, we should continue evangelizing, making noise and making
"kulit" to everyone about this. We still can make a difference.
Thanks and stay well…”
Hazel Henrisha Chua (November 26,
2013): “Anton, this is a very
informative and well-researched post. I
would agree with what you said with regards to disaster prevention. I think that's a misnomer of sorts, because it
begs the question: can disasters really be prevented? As you discussed, more often than not, it
isn't. If we could shoot lasers or find
some sort of technology that would divert or perhaps dissipate tropical
depressions in the oceans as they are forming, then we wouldn't have to deal
with typhoons in the first place. But
this technology is absent, impossible even, and so we can only prepare for
these disasters, as they come. It seems
like such a helpless stand to take, but we really don't have a choice. In this case, there are many fingers that
have been pointed (our President included), but there's no point in blaming
because that doesn't reconstruct houses or bring people back to life. What we can do at this point is learn from
what happened. Going through your
suggestions, I would agree that typhoon-prone areas should be studied and
residential areas should be re-assessed. Places that are at risk of being submerged
during the storm surge should be marked off as being unsuitable for people to
live. It's better to err on the side of
caution rather than the opposite. The
unfortunate thing is that in the Philippines, most proposals are often heavily
politicized. So while I am hopeful that
changes will happen from the ground up after this great tragedy, at the same
time I also feel a sense of helplessness because there is only so much that we
can do.
Hazel Henrisha Chua (November 26,
2013): “The modes of action you
recommended are definitely interesting, and they do give rise to hope that we
can create enough noise to actually make a difference. Here's to hoping --- and to taking action.”
Antonio
C. Antonio (November 26, 2013): “Hi,
Hazel... Thank you so much for the positive comments and additional information
you shared. I'm glad you mentioned "taking action." Our
"making enough noise" strategy will not be enough without
"taking action" as you said. Last Monday (November 18, 2013)
when I wrote this report, I invented the term "no build zone" just to
describe the areas where structures (commercial or residential) should no
longer be built. After posting the
discussion topic, I also prepared a one-page brief and made ten copies of it.
For some strange coincidence, I had meetings with a former senator and a
cabinet secretary (hindi ko na lang babangitin ang mga pangalan nila baka kasi
ayaw nila) Wednesday and Friday last week. In these separate meetings, Yolanda
(being the big news of the week) was also discussed. I took the opportunity to hand them copies of
the brief. And lo and behold, last
Monday (November 25, 2013) the President directed the DENR to study and
identify "no build zones" among coastal areas on the eastern
seaboard. I find it amazing that the term I just invented was the same
term used by the President. Whether or
not it was my brief that prompted the President to do what he did is no longer
important... what is more important is that "action" is being taken
by people who could make things happen. With this in the background, I
would like to say again that if we are passionate enough with what we want to
see happen and make enough noise and "take action" too (as you
said)... trust me, Hazel, we could make a difference.”
Hazel Henrisha Chua (November 27,
2013): “Wow, Anton! This is really impressive! I think it's great that you were in a position
to be in contact with people who can really get people moving, given their
position in the government and relevant government agencies. This can really inspire people to take
action. This goes to show that even
small actions can become big with persistence and with a little bit of luck!”
Vladymir Rivera (November 27,
2013): “My last post on this
topic... What I find intriguing in this
thread is how seemingly top-down our thinking about disaster prevention, and
how oblivious we seem to be of the socio-economic context of the Yolanda
disaster. One thing that really caught
my interest was how many of us here are using the word "educate" in
an innocently condescending tone. What
makes you think those people devastated by Yolanda are uneducated? And what kind of "education" are we
talking about here? About disaster
prevention? About typhoon? I would bet that those who have been living in
the coastal areas, many of them artisanal fishers, who were victims of Yolanda
know more about mangroves or of coastal ecosystem than many of us here. They understand disaster more than many of us
city dwellers. I was surprised that not
a single soul has tried to debunk the rubbish that "had we used the word
tsunami rather than storm surge we would have less casualty." I expect Cristina Gonzales-Romualdez, a city
councilor in Tacloban City, to say that. But for many people to espouse such idea is
beyond me. Why is it that most
literatures are saying that the poor are the most vulnerable to the impacts of
climate change? Because they are. They have little means, zero options. I'm sure those people we wanted to
"educate" know what a typhoon signal # 4 means: it is disastrous. Tsunami or storm surge, the fact is that they
are too poor to have the means to move to another town or island. The local government couldn't help them. It was not because they didn't know the
danger. They do, but they have nowhere
to go. And they have nothing except that
little shack by the side of the sea. We
are seeing them only as victims of Yolanda but not as perpetual economic
refugees marginalised by long years of inequality in these provinces controlled
by a few elites. We see them being
killed massively by a super typhoon, but not by poverty which hounded them
since time immemorial.”
Hazel Henrisha Chua (November 29,
2013): “Anton, I think this is a
laudable endeavor. It's great that
you're using your position to spread awareness. Every little bit helps.”
Hazel Henrisha Chua (December 2,
2013): “I think I've seen some links
being posted on social networks about how Typhoon Haiyan was apparently
man-made. There was even a YouTube video
explaining why it was man-made, I think.
However, I don't subscribe to the idea and many others have refuted the
claims made by the person in the video. I don't think that the typhoon was man-made,
as in, by the US military. It is
man-made in the sense that global warming could have had an impact, and that
phenomenon is certainly caused by man's actions.”
Prof. Renato Folledo, Jr.
(December 3, 2013): “When I left PH in
2005, I was also a believer of the human-induced climate change after attending
the lectures of my IPCC-member colleagues in UPLB. However, after reading more balanced articles
about it (pro and con anthropogenic factors to climate change), it changed my
perception and belief. But the main trigger to my enlightenment was when I
received a lecture about the Milankovitch Theory (http://academic.emporia.edu/aberjame/student/howard2/theory.htm) where I was shown by my lecturer on how they measure earth’s
prehistoric temperature using dendrochronology from a million year old tree
trunk that was not yet fossilized. Our
lecturers handed to us different prehistoric tree trunks where they measured
these temperatures. If you watch national geographic documentaries from Youtube,
you’ll see that they also use several million year old ice that are preserved
in the Antarctic. Or course they are
also able to read it from other fossilized organic materials like tree trunks
(photo above: a 205-million year old fossilized tree trunk in front of the
Museum of Natural History in Washington DC).
From these, scientists were able to quantify temperature patterns
hundreds of millions or even billions of years ago. Even though our satellite and ground based
meteorological instruments are now more accurate, we can still see from
geology-based climatic history that the warming of earth is part of the natural
earth cycles. Now, the question
is, could it be that humans are the main culprit in the current climate change?
Please watch this Youtube video first
before answering it. In the video,
you’ll see two guys burning ice in Siberia. What I mean to say is that there are many
other natural sources of heat-trapping gases like CO2 and methane other than
burning fossil fuels, sources like volcanoes, ocean release of methane, and
other natural sources, as well as human-induced but not due to fossil burning
like the methane released from rice crops and cattle dung. Illustation: when I put water on a deep well,
did I add water to the well? Definitely
yes! But can I add enough water to cause
the deep well to overflow? That I’m not
sure. The climate alarmist are employing
scare tactics and appeal through the emotions like other activists do without
saying concrete evidence aside from their model predictions which are likewise
subjective. When they say that 97% of scientists believe that climate change is
human induced, it seems convincing but they do not show any survey to prove
their statistics. Nonetheless, I believe
that we should still minimize the release of greenhouse gasses in the
atmosphere, but at the same time, it should not deter us from driving our cars
or using fossil fuels that drives industrialization until we find more
environment-friendly fuel alternatives. My
boss once said that “time will come when humans will burn fossil fuels to warm
the earth.” Maybe that will come true
when we are in the cooling stages of the Milankovitch cycle. For now, we should minimize fossil fuel
burning but not too frugal that we must return to a stone-age lifestyle (yes,
not even bronze or iron age because it entails burning of fuels to smelt these
metals).”
Elizabeth Villezar (December 3,
2013): “Hello Sir Jun, I was not able to watch the video due to some
error on the file, but the Milankovitch Theory made me recall the lessons I had
in my early years in school. The theories that were taught to us on how
the continents move to their current positions (until now they are still moving
but it's not as obvious as anybody could notice it). The scientific
studies that were made as to what caused or are causing the increase in earth's
temperature is basically true (the extinction of dinosaurs in our present
time). However, the occurrences of these calamities seem to increase as
the time passes. If we'll analyse the theory, it may be true.
However, we are still on doubt, what made these changes on earth? What
made it tilt? What made it change its path around the sun? What
made it wobble? I'm just thinking and sharing my doubt with you. Somebody might be able to explain to me other
factors causing these changes, just like the theories on solar storms, the electromagnetic
field of the earth, etc.”
Cynthia Andaya (December 4,
2013): “Earth science books discuss the
Milankovitch cycles but a simple discussion is given in ossfoundation.us on
that topic. Sunspots and changes
in earth-sun distance (no matter how small, whether by tilt, wobbling, or
elliptical cycle) definitely affect the earth's climate. But whether it's
cooling on one hemisphere or warming on the other, these effects are enhanced
by the increased amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. And there is not only CO2 that
we are talking of here. Other gases have greater global warming
potential. Climate change activitists. those who are not merely
reactionary but are people who base their actions/reactions on valid data,
believe that we can bring back CO2 concentration to 350 ppm
350.org), the safe upperlimit, by using more solar power than burning coal,
planting more trees instead of removing them, and by having governments who can
be more responsible in promoting environmental sustainability. In May 2013, CO2 conc. reached
400 ppm, as measured in the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii (May 10, 2013,
nytimes.com). We do not have to go back
to the Stone Age to achieve that 350 level. If governments are serious about tackling the
climate change problems, they should begin putting more money on better
alternative energy resources, and educating people about it.”
Eduviges Gibas (December 4,
2013): “I think the map with the scale
of 1:50000 was already prepared as early as 2010 and a more detailed map scale
of 1: 10000 in year 2011. Some officials
I think had taken note of this, while others maybe not. But for sure, this has been explained and
distributed to the concerned officials as part of the survey and assessment
procedure of the project on geohazards.”
Liezl Mendoza (December 5,
2013): “We cannot prevent typhoons like
that of Yolanda. What we can do is to
prepare for a similar event. But come to
think of it, we were taught how to manage our environment and natural
resources, right? We have the capability
to inform our kababayan through the social media or other means like tapping
the national/international media to discuss how we can conserve our
environment and minimize the effect of climate change. Also, we can help in informing the proper
government agency/authorities to act on the information that we have. We may have the resources and the know-how. But aside from us, there are more
knowledgeable experts in the field of disaster risk reduction and climate
change adaptation. The key is
information dissemination and the popularizing of technical and scientific
terms. As a former broadcast media
practitioner, it has always been a challenge for us (media practitioners) how
to turn jargons of different professions into understandable and relatable
terms to a common viewer who doesn’t have a single background on the
topic/issue. What happened in Yolanda is
a lack of information. Perhaps it could
have helped if there has been more graphic representation of the possible
effects of Yolanda through mass media. If there was proper information on the effect
and the scope of the storm surge, the local government of Tacloban and also the
National Government Officials sent to Tacloban should not have been victimized
by the typhoon. The areas identified to
be hit by Yolanda prepared beforehand. Unfortunately,
they were ill-prepared for the worst case scenario because the severity of the
situation was not effectively and timely communicated. In one interview to
Mahar Lagmay of Project NOAH, he admitted that they were able to send out
warnings but they were not able to identify the ahead of time the specific
areas which will be affected by the storm surge. As I remember him saying it, “Naunahan kami ni
Yolanda.” Although looking at the characteristic of the
Samar-Leyte area, a region which was known to have been always included in the
list of the poor provinces in the country, even if they were given enough
information, there was not enough resources for the areas to transport all the
affected residents to safer ground.
Hazard maps were distributed to local governments. But it is not that easy to remove a community
from the place they called home especially if there are no clear alternative or
no definite plan on the relocation site and the possible livelihood
opportunities to the affected communities.
There is always a first time. Unfortunately, our country learned our
lesson, the hard way. It cost our
country thousands of lives and millions/billions of properties. But those affected areas will learn to adapt.
We may take the example of communities living near Mt. Mayon. After years of suffering from the wrath of
Mt. Mayon’s lava and lahar, plus the numerous typhoon, they were able to design
a warning system and an effective evacuation plan. Another example is Barangay San Gabriel in
Bayambang, Pangasinan. Houses have tall
foundations to withstand the perennial flooding. They also constructed elevated evacuation
sites (stadium like large structures) strategically located in different areas
of the barangay. We have to be vigilant
in effectively spreading what we know to the proper agencies and concerned
communities. And also we should be able
to do some follow up whether the desired outcome was met.”
Antonio
C. Antonio (December 31 2013): “HAPPY NEW YEAR! Please watch the attached
video. It's the most comprehensive video (so far) on Typhoon
Haiyan/Yolanda where the causes and effects of typhoons are scientifically
presented. Thanks...
Liza Marie Cabungcal (January 3,
2014): “Happy New Year 2014!!! Anton, thank
you so much for that link...it is captivating!!! It's worthwhile passing the
link around.
Thomas Ponce Reyes (January 6,
2014): “Really glad you posted it here
Mr. Anton. The specter of such calamity
gives me chills. Though the typhoon's development was well monitored and
documented, its destructive power was unprecedented. We were completely caught off guard. I wonder why almost all storm experts
consulted were foreigners. We should
have more capable people considering we get hit by typhoons every now and then.”
Antonio
C. Antonio (January 6, 2014): “Hi,
Thomas.. The link we watched was produced by a foreign group. I could
only guess that, in the production stage of the video, they had more access to
foreign storm chasers and experts. Sana one of the bigger local networks
(ABS-CBN, GMA and TV 5) will come up with something like this with local
experts sharing their thoughts and knowledge. They could definitely bring
the issues closer to home. Baka naman something is in the works na rin
with them...”
Oscar Sarmiento, Jr. (January 7,
2014): “If just like to share that I
have in-laws who are survivors of Yolanda. They live right across Tacloban City
in Brgy. Amandaheyan, Basey, Samar. It's around a 10-minute boat ride
from the pier near McDonald's in Tacloban. Living along the coast, their
survival is nothing short of a miracle. The
devastation of the home and fish cages they built is not enough to stop them
from coming back. After a recovery period here in Bukidnon, the family has
planned to bounce back by building what they are calling a windship, a
variation of the earthship projects which you can find in the web. These are
designed to be built from waste material, but sturdy enough to withstand
another Yolanda. They also are designed to be off-grid. The same group behind
the earthship project is behind it. The project is scheduled to commence in a few
months. It would be interesting to see
how this turns out.”
